Diamond-Theory.com

The Trade:

Indians send Ryan Garko to the Giants for Class A lefty Scott Barnes.

On Paper:

The Giants are trying to make a wildcard push and need some help with the bats.  The Indians are trading for parts.

Best Case Scenario for the Giants:

Garko puts more players in their correct spots in the lineup and the Giants, with their pitching, produce enough runs to win.

Best Case scenario for the Indians:

Barnes becomes a big league starter.

Worst Case Scenario for the Giants:

Barnes is a diamond in the rough and Garko is Travis Ishikawa plus a few years.

Worst Case Scenario for the Indians:

Barnes never makes it.

Bottom Line:

The Indians always seem to have a glut of talented hitters with no position to play.  With Andy Marte ready to go and Matt LaPorta on his way, Garko was expendable.  What the Indians got was the Number 9 prospect in the Giants system and a potential solid lefty.  Barnes hasn't yet made the jump to AA ball, where the real test comes, but he's put up respectable numbers to date.  As for the Giants, they get a solid, but not game-changing, bat.  His OPS+ is 114, which makes him the second best bat in that lineup behind Pablo Sandoval.  As the Giants lack any sort of offense threat outside of the Panda, Garko is a marked improvement.  What will probably happen is Garko and Travis Ishikawa, who is breaking onto the scene nicely in San Francisco, will go into some sort of platoon.  Garko may even see some time in the outfield just to stay in the lineup.  While this is no blockbuster, both teams seem to have won out.  The Indians don't have to pay Garko (he's arbitration eligible this offseason) and get a decent prospect, and the Giants deal from an organizational strength and get some offense.  We'll see who "wins" when all is said and done with young Scott Barnes.

Jim Rice and Ricky Henderson, along with Veteran's Committee selection Joe Gordon, were inducted into the Hall of Fame Sunday. 

Tony Kubek entered the broadcaster's wing, and Nick Peters entered as a sportswriter.

As anyone who has ever been to Cooperstown for an induction knows, it was probably a fun place to be.  Though it did not approach the ungodly 70,000 people mark the Gwynn-Ripken induction knotted, a solid contingent of 21,000 was on hand to welcome the foursome into the Hall. 

There has been plenty written about them, so I'll just leave you with some stats.

Ricky Henderson's career numbers:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/henderi01.shtml

Jim Rice's Career numbers:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/riceji01.shtml

Joe Gordon's career numbers:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gordojo01.shtml

One last note.  Travis wrote an article on where Ricky ranks among the game's best, so check it out:

http://diamond-theory.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=141:rickey&catid=37:numbers&Itemid=57

The Trade:

The Cardinals trade for Matt Holliday, giving up prospects Brett Wallace (3B), Shane Peterson (OF), and Clay Mortenson (RHP).

On Paper:

The Cardinals get what LaRussa has long wanted (generally: another bat behind Pujols; specifically: Matt Holliday).  The A's make a standard All-Star for top prospects trade they have become known for.  The A's also kick in part of the remaining balance on Holliday's contract.

Best Case Scenario for Cardinals:

Holliday continues his recent tear and the Cards see another M3 combination in the 3-4-5 slots.

Best Case Scenario for A's:

Wallace becomes the Major League hitter everyone expects while Peterson and Mortenson fill in their respective rolls.

Worst Case Scenario for Cardinals:

See Mark Mulder for Dan Haren and Co.

Worst Case Scenario for A's:

Wallace flops, never becoming the hitter the A's expect, and they lose the draft picks they (may) have received for Holliday.

Bottom Line:

Oddly enough, the team trading for the prospects seems to have the best worst scenario here.  Even if Holliday plays to his career numbers for the rest of the season, the Cardinals still lose if they can't parlay the acquisition into a multi-year deal, though a WS ring would dull the pain should they get one.

Wallace is a concensus hitter, but the Cards have nowhere for him to play - while listed as a third baseman, he is a first baseman / DH long term.  He will be a good fit in an A's system that seems to spawn hitters like him.

Much has been made of Holliday's drop in production this year and of the Cardinals' need to protect Pujols.  What hasn't been talked about much is the protection the Cards will provide Holliday - being sandwiched between Pujols and Ludwick (50 HR combined) is a big jump from Scott Hairston and Jack Cust (28 HR combined).  Also note: Holliday's "lackluster" 12 home runs place him third on the Cards.

Since the last posting on rookies, a name has popped up in the National league and is making some noise.  Dexter Fowler is slowly having a good rookie season.  So good that I think he's tied himself with the leader all season, Colby Rasmus.  Rasmus still leads the big power numbers, but Fowler has similar percentages and is near the league lead in stolen bases.  This could come down to the wire.

Andrew McCutchen still has some work to do if he wants in the race, and a bunch of other names have popped up as potential contenders as we head towards the finish line.  Casey McGehee has come on strong with the Brewers, as has Travis Ishikawa for the Giants.  Both are showing off some power potential.  Gerardo Parra may not be the most flashy of the candidates, but he's having a good year. 

The lone pitcher I'd say has any chance is J.A. Happ with the champs.  If he has a few good starts between now and next time I post about this, I'll stop slighting him in my rankings.

The Pirates have another potential contender to watch for in Garrett Jones.  He only has 49 ABs, but he's hit 7 homers, a triple, and three doubles in them.  He keeps that up and he might be the dark horse winner.

Still got to go with Rasmus, but in a close race.

In the AL, there is still no qualified bat.  Brett Gardner is in contention, as are Gordon Beckham and Nolan Reimold.  They are all having decent seasons, but I think the winner in the AL will most likely be a pitcher.

As for pitchers, Rickey Romero, Brad Bergeson, and Jeff Niemann are having good campaigns as starters while Andrew Bailey is havng a good run in relief. 

It's also close, but I'll go with Bailey again.

The debate in St. Louis recently has hinged on whether or not the Cardinals need to get a bat to protect Albert Pujols.  I do not think they need to trade for one, and here is why.

The Cardinals are a middle of the road offense in the National League, which usually means they need a bat.  But this is a team that has effectively had a hole at third and has missed significant playing time from three of its major offensive contributors from last season: Ryan Ludwick, Troy Glaus, and Rick Ankiel.  A full season of a healthy Ludwick, Ankiel, and Glaus and this would be a ridiculous argument.  The only reason we're even talking about getting a bat is that there have been injuries.  But Ludwick is back and appears back to form, Ankiel can be put in a platoon now with Colby Rasmus playing all the time, and the Cardinals have traded for Mark DeRosa.  There really aren't any holes to fill, especially not when DeRosa comes back.

I’m sure you know how good Albert Pujols is by now, but I like numbers so here you go: 73 R, 32 HR, 87 RBI, 71 BB, and .723 SLG (all 1^st in the NL), and a .332 BA (4^th in the NL).  According to ESPN.con, he is projected to finish the season with 57 home runs, 156 RBI, 127 walks, and 63 strikeouts.  Some more interesting stats: Pujols has 20 hits that put the Cardinals ahead so far this season, and in 386 plate appearances with RBI opportunities, Pujols has 87 RBI (the average ML player would have 44 RBI with that many opportunities).  With this production, the Cardinals are 49-42, 2.5 games up in the NL Central.  As the season wears on and the races get tighter, you can bet Pujols will be seeing fewer pitches to hit as every game starts to be dissected more thoroughly.  If Pujols’ production drops, so will the Cardinals’ place in the standings.  The Cards need to make a trade to protect Pujols in that lineup.

Outside of Halladay, there are a few other decent starters that teams seem willing to move.  If the Braves decide to throw in the towel, Javier Vazquez could be one of those pitchers.

Vazquez is an interesting case.  He's not a dominant, ace-type pitcher, but he can eat up innings and throw a gem now and then.  Over the last decade, he's thrown under 200 innings once (2004 when he only threw 198).  He's a strikeout pitcher prone to the long ball, and he can make several quality starts for a team looking to win down the wire. 

The lone mark against Vazquez is that he hasn't done well thus far in the postseason.  In a small sample, he's been pretty terrible (10.34 ERA in 15.2 innings).  It should be noted here, however, that Vazquez was rolled by the champion Red Sox in 2004 and the AL champion Rays in 2008.  Bad luck against good teams or choked when the chips were down?  Teams will have to decide.

Vazquez makes sense to any team looking for pitching depth, which limits the field to every team.  He'd make a good third starter and a dominant fourth guy.  He may well be the fall back for any team that misses on the Halladay deal.

One of the first questions asked when PED allegations broke in Major League Baseball was whether they would ruin players’ chances at being elected to the Hall of Fame.  The resounding answer, both speculative and so far in practice, is yes.  Players accused of taking steroids and other PEDs have found their legacies tarnished and career numbers completely disregarded.

One question that I have yet to see be discussed in the major media, and I thank my fellow contributor Ben for bringing this issue to light, is whether we should reevaluate the careers of players who weren’t quite Hall of Fame material.  According to the Baseball Writers Association of America rules for election, Hall of Fame voting “shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.”  Another mantra is that a player’s career should be evaluated against those of his contemporaries, and only the best of each generation should gain acceptance.

As players with Hall of Fame-caliber careers see their election chances disappear due to PED allegations, shouldn’t other players from their generation step up and enter the Hall of Fame discussion?  Specifically, is Fred McGriff now a Hall of Fame player?

Fred McGriff hit 493 home runs in his career, knocking in 1,550 RBIs.  These are great numbers, but most people leave McGriff out of Hall of Fame consideration because he was nowhere near as feared as players like Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Raphael Palmeiro, etc (you get the point).  Now that these other careers are being discounted as illegitimate, shouldn’t McGriff’s numbers be held in higher regard?  Let’s look deeper:

McGriff has 493 home runs.  Of all Hall of Fame eligible players, the only ones with more than 450 home runs who are not in the Hall are Mark McGwire (583) and Jose Canseco (462).  The other twenty players were all elected.  In the RBI category, we a similar trend:  Of HOF eligible players with 1,500 or more RBIs, the only ones not in the Hall are Harold Baines(1,628) and Andre Dawson  (1,591).  Neither of these players has been accused of PEDs, but both are at least in the Hall of Fame discussion, and neither had the home run total of McGriff.

As far as longevity, McGriff hit 20+ home runs every year from his rookie campaign of 1987 to 2002, excluding 1998 when he hit 19, and 30+ home runs from 1988 to 1994, sprinkling other 30+ home run seasons in 1999, 2001, and 2002.  He also drove in 100 or more runs eight times.

The Crime Dog was also essential to his teams’ yearly success.  He played on the postseason five times, with the Blue Jays in 1989 and with the Braves in 1993 and 1995-1997.  In 218 plate appearances over 50 games, he was a .303 postseason hitter with a .532 slugging percentage and .917 OPS.  In fact, removing his weak performance with the Blue Jays and looking only at his four postseasons with the Braves, he hit .323/.411/.581/.992 (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS).  During his two World Series appearances with the Braves (one of which they actually won) he hit .279 with a .605 slugging percentage and .989 OPS.  If anything, his postseason numbers were an improvement over those from the regular season.  Plus, that “Crime Dog” nickname has be to worth at least a vote or two.

Fred McGriff has been left out of Hall of Fame talks because he wasn’t the best of his generation.  Now we are finding that most of the best of his generation bent (or broke?) the rules to obtain that status.  McGriff’s name has never once come up in PED talk.  Maybe it’s time that he should – as one of the players who resisted the temptation and still attained the game’s highest levels of play.

 

References:

BBWAA Rules for Election:

http://web.baseballhalloffame.org/hofers/bbwaa.jsp

Career home run leaders:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/HR_career.shtml

Career RBI leaders:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/RBI_career.shtml

McGriff career stats:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcgrifr01.shtml

 

Oakland is thirteen games under .500.  The A's have already made a move for Scott Hairston.  Holliday is on the move.  The question is, can Billy Beane convince a somewhat skeptical set of GMs that Holliday is still one of the best bats in the game.  Good luck to Beane.

Everyone knew Beane was gambling when he made the move for Holliday this offseason (A's Land Holliday).  If his numbers were solid outside of Coors Field, Beane would be able to either move him at the deadline in a blockbuster, or, if his bat put the A's in contention, hold him for the season and then get the picks for him when he signed a megadeal elsewhere.  The problem for Beane has been Holliday's numbers are not the same as they were at Coors Field, and his value is way below that which he traded to get him in the first place.  So now what?

Matt Holliday is still a good bat.  Even with a down year, he has an above-average OPS and can still put a hurt on a ball.  Plus, his OPS is a good fifty points higher in the second half than in the first over his career.  So he'll make a team better down the stretch.  The problem is, will a team be willing to make a similar gamble on him that Billy Beane made?

The Cardinals have been talked about as suitors for awhile now.  He would do well to protect Albert Pujols.  But if Ryan Ludwick comes back into form, the Cards may just wait to sign him this offseason.  Holliday would also fit with the Cubs (who still lack a righthanded bat that scares anyone), the White Sox, the Twins, or in a long shot the Angels (who just need someone to stay on the field).  The Giants could be a possibility if they felt they needed to win now, but they have good days ahead of them they do not want to throw away for a one-year rental like Holliday.  Neither the Braves nor the Marlins look to be adding players now, and I don't think the Brewers or the Mets are interested in making this sort of huge move, though the Mets might if injuries persist and the division seems within reach.  That leaves a small, but somewhat intriguing pool of interested teams. 

The last time we checked in on the AL Cy Young race, it was Zack grienke in first by a lot.  Now its Zack Greinke in first by a little.  The gap has been erased, but I think Greinke still leads.  He continues to retian the lead in ERA and is second in the league in strikeouts.  His 10 wins (I know, spare me) rank second as well.  On these measures, I think he is still the favorite.

Behind him, and by no means out of the question, are former winner Roy Halladay (for now, if he's still in the AL), potential perrennial candidate Felix Hernandez, and upstart Edwin Jackson.  If the award were given now, it would be given to one of those four.

In the NL, the race is a little more wide open.  Last year's winner Tim Lincecum has stormed back into a narrow lead ahead of Dan Haren and Giants teammate Matt Cain.  Behind those three are a near solid pack consisting of Josh Johnson, Javier Vazquez, Yovanni Gallardo, Adam Wainwright, and Chad Billingsley.  The award is Lincecum's to lose, and he has more people chasing him than Greinke does.

We'll see where we are on this in a few weeks.