Diamond-Theory.com

I’m sure you know how good Albert Pujols is by now, but I like numbers so here you go: 73 R, 32 HR, 87 RBI, 71 BB, and .723 SLG (all 1^st in the NL), and a .332 BA (4^th in the NL).  According to ESPN.con, he is projected to finish the season with 57 home runs, 156 RBI, 127 walks, and 63 strikeouts.  Some more interesting stats: Pujols has 20 hits that put the Cardinals ahead so far this season, and in 386 plate appearances with RBI opportunities, Pujols has 87 RBI (the average ML player would have 44 RBI with that many opportunities).  With this production, the Cardinals are 49-42, 2.5 games up in the NL Central.  As the season wears on and the races get tighter, you can bet Pujols will be seeing fewer pitches to hit as every game starts to be dissected more thoroughly.  If Pujols’ production drops, so will the Cardinals’ place in the standings.  The Cards need to make a trade to protect Pujols in that lineup.

Right now, the Cardinals have Ryan Ludwick hitting behind Pujols.  Ludwick is a good hitter, a really good hitter even, but not nearly what Pujols needs to make pitchers think twice.  Since coming off the DL on May 29, Ludwick has 7 home runs 30 RBI and 26 strikeouts (rates of 28, 119, and 103 per 162 games) while hitting .257, and that’s only after a monster week headed into the All-Star break (4 HR, 15 RBI, 3 SO, .481 BA from July 7 to July 12).  Ryan Ludwick just doesn’t scare pitchers enough to get this to pitch to Pujols.  As mentioned above, Pujols has an ML-leading 71 walks, and his 32 intentional walks also lead baseball (Chipper Jones and Adrian Gonzalez are tied for second with 13).  A full 24 of those IBB came when Ludwick was not on the DL. Ludwick alone is not enough to protect Albert.

What Ludwick would make is a good 5-hitter.  In order to protect Pujols by himself, whoever is hitting behind Albert would have to be of the Manny Ramirez/Alex Rodriguez/Ryan Howard variety, and it’s unreasonable to think the Cardinals will get anyone like that.  But what can happen is a stronger lineup top-to-bottom, or a 4-5 combination which features Ludwick, preferably at the tail end.  This means that any pitcher walking Pujols will have to face two power threats in their own right without letting Pujols score (he has 10 stolen bases in 13 attempts, by the way).  This is the only reasonable way Pujols can be protected in any lineup that doesn’t wear navy blue pinstripes and something the Cardinals should be looking at.  The Cardinals don’t need another Hall of Famer to hit clean up.  What they need is someone who can do what Ludwidck does at his best on a consistent basis.  They need another 35-home run, 110 RBI threat between Pujols and Ludwick.  Ideally it would be someone with a name and track record Ludwick hasn’t had the time to make for himself.

As for who the Cardinals should look for, we need to start by position.  Catcher, first, third, and two outfield spots are happily filled (Yadier Molina, Pujols, Mark DeRosa, Ludwick, and Colby Rasmus).  This leaves second, short, and a corner outfield position, remembering that Skip Schumaker can play second or outfield if need be.  According to MLBtraderumors.com, here are viable trade candidates for those positions that might fit what the Cardinals are looking for:

2B: Dan Uggla (16HR/ 50 RBI/ .768 OPS)

SS: Miguel Tejada (7/ 49/ .830)

OF: Matt Holiday (8/ 43/ .792), Jermaine Dye (20/ 55/ .942), Alex Rios (10/ 46/ .732), Luke Scott (18/ 51/ .976), Jeremy Hermida (10/ 34/ .744), Cody Ross (14/ 52/ /836), Scott Hairston (11/ 31/ .870).

Of the names listed, I like Luke Scott and Cody Ross.  Uggla, Tejada, Dye, and Rios are nice, but too expensive in the long term for what the Cards would need to trade to get them, and Holliday’s troubles have been well documented, though me may be had for cheap because of them. Of Scott and Ross, both have their ups and downs.  Scott won’t be a free agent until after 2012 (Ross after 2011), but Ross has center-field ability, though the Cards don’t seem to need it much.  Scott is probably the easier trade since the Marlins are somewhat in the NL East race and Scott plays for the Orioles in the AL, who could use a player like Chris Duncan at DH if Scott goes elsewhere.

A reasonable deal to help protect Pujols looks possible logistically and financially.  The Cardinals need to do something or they risk wasting the best player of this decade because they can’t provide adequate help.