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Giants Get Garko

Tuesday, 28 July 2009 14:51 Ben
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The Trade:

Indians send Ryan Garko to the Giants for Class A lefty Scott Barnes.

On Paper:

The Giants are trying to make a wildcard push and need some help with the bats.  The Indians are trading for parts.

Best Case Scenario for the Giants:

Garko puts more players in their correct spots in the lineup and the Giants, with their pitching, produce enough runs to win.

Best Case scenario for the Indians:

Barnes becomes a big league starter.

Worst Case Scenario for the Giants:

Barnes is a diamond in the rough and Garko is Travis Ishikawa plus a few years.

Worst Case Scenario for the Indians:

Barnes never makes it.

Bottom Line:

The Indians always seem to have a glut of talented hitters with no position to play.  With Andy Marte ready to go and Matt LaPorta on his way, Garko was expendable.  What the Indians got was the Number 9 prospect in the Giants system and a potential solid lefty.  Barnes hasn't yet made the jump to AA ball, where the real test comes, but he's put up respectable numbers to date.  As for the Giants, they get a solid, but not game-changing, bat.  His OPS+ is 114, which makes him the second best bat in that lineup behind Pablo Sandoval.  As the Giants lack any sort of offense threat outside of the Panda, Garko is a marked improvement.  What will probably happen is Garko and Travis Ishikawa, who is breaking onto the scene nicely in San Francisco, will go into some sort of platoon.  Garko may even see some time in the outfield just to stay in the lineup.  While this is no blockbuster, both teams seem to have won out.  The Indians don't have to pay Garko (he's arbitration eligible this offseason) and get a decent prospect, and the Giants deal from an organizational strength and get some offense.  We'll see who "wins" when all is said and done with young Scott Barnes.

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Cards get Holliday, A's get Prospects

Saturday, 25 July 2009 01:21 Travis
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The Trade:

The Cardinals trade for Matt Holliday, giving up prospects Brett Wallace (3B), Shane Peterson (OF), and Clay Mortenson (RHP).

On Paper:

The Cardinals get what LaRussa has long wanted (generally: another bat behind Pujols; specifically: Matt Holliday).  The A's make a standard All-Star for top prospects trade they have become known for.  The A's also kick in part of the remaining balance on Holliday's contract.

Best Case Scenario for Cardinals:

Holliday continues his recent tear and the Cards see another M3 combination in the 3-4-5 slots.

Best Case Scenario for A's:

Wallace becomes the Major League hitter everyone expects while Peterson and Mortenson fill in their respective rolls.

Worst Case Scenario for Cardinals:

See Mark Mulder for Dan Haren and Co.

Worst Case Scenario for A's:

Wallace flops, never becoming the hitter the A's expect, and they lose the draft picks they (may) have received for Holliday.

Bottom Line:

Oddly enough, the team trading for the prospects seems to have the best worst scenario here.  Even if Holliday plays to his career numbers for the rest of the season, the Cardinals still lose if they can't parlay the acquisition into a multi-year deal, though a WS ring would dull the pain should they get one.

Wallace is a concensus hitter, but the Cards have nowhere for him to play - while listed as a third baseman, he is a first baseman / DH long term.  He will be a good fit in an A's system that seems to spawn hitters like him.

Much has been made of Holliday's drop in production this year and of the Cardinals' need to protect Pujols.  What hasn't been talked about much is the protection the Cards will provide Holliday - being sandwiched between Pujols and Ludwick (50 HR combined) is a big jump from Scott Hairston and Jack Cust (28 HR combined).  Also note: Holliday's "lackluster" 12 home runs place him third on the Cards.

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Last Updated on Saturday, 25 July 2009 01:42
 

Pirates and Nationals Make 4-Player Deal, If Anyone Cares

Thursday, 02 July 2009 22:13 Travis
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The Trade:

The Cardinals acquire Mark DeRosa from the Indians for Chris Perez and a players to be named.

On Paper:

The Pirates trade Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett to the Nationals for Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan.

Best Case Scenario for Pirates:

They can turn Hanrahan into the closer he was supposed to be and Milledge, age 24, matures into a serviceable outfielder.

Best Case Scenario for Nationals:

Morgan becomes the fan and player favorite he was in Pittsburgh and has a little fun in DC, Burnett can eat some some innings and provide quality relief until Strasbourg is signed and send directly to Washington to help out.

Worst Case Scenario for Pirates:

They get the players they traded for.

Worst Case Scenario for Nationals:

Morgan's so far productive season flares out and Burnett does exactly what Hanrahan has been doing.

Bottom Line:

Does this trade matter for anyone outside of Pittsburgh and Washington?  These two teams have a combined 58 wins (the Dodgers have 50).  Washington is playing at an unsightly .289 pace, to they almost have to improve, though I don't see this being a major turning point in their season.  On the other side of the deal, what have the Pirates been doing?  In the last 12 months, they have traded four starting outfielders: Xavier Nady, Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, and now Nyjer Morgan.  They weren't a great team to begin with.  What have they gotten back?  The likes of Ross Ohlendorf, some decent to good prospects, and Joel Hanrahan with his 7+ ERA and Lastings Milledge and his .167 BA.  Those prospects better be really good.

 

Either way, neither team improved enough to get to .500 this season, which is a sad thought.

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Cardinals Trade for DeRosa

Monday, 29 June 2009 20:07 Travis
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The Trade:

The Cardinals acquire Mark DeRosa from the Indians for Chris Perez and a players to be named.

On Paper:

The Cardinals are searching for offense to stay in the division race.  The Indians stock up on young pitching.

Best Case Scenario for Cardinals:

DeRosa plays third until Glaus returns (or for the season) while adding a right-handed option to a lefty-saturated outfield. He also adds a home run threat at offesnive legitimacy to the 4 through 2 spots in the order.

Best Case Scenario for Indians:

Perez becomes the closer the Cardinals were hoping he would be at the beginning of this season. He's still 23, so it's not unreasonable to think it can be done.  At this point he probably has a better chance with Cleveland than, say, Anthony Reyes.

Worst Case Scenario for Cardinals:

DeRosa has been pretty consistent throughout his career, so the worst case here may be that Mark DeRosa wasn't enough of a bat to begin with.

Worst Case Scenario for Indians:

The Cards were hoping Perez could fill in as their closer as early as the middle part of last season, and he still hasn't found the consistency to do so.If this continues, the Indians just gave away Mark DeRosa for a fireballing relief pitcher with a 4.18 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in his first full season.  The name Kenny Powers rings a bell.

Bottom Line:

The Cardinals have been looking at Matt Holiday, but make a safer move acquiring DeRosa.  DeRosa has been playing well this season, and will cost the Redbirds about $4 million less than Holliday (both are free agents at year's end).  DeRosa is a great add for a team who lost their starting third baseman just before the season started and isn't too hopeful about an upcoming return.  Adding him to a team with a 41-35 record makes for a serious playoff contender.  Plus, Tony has to be salavating at the 3B/2B/OF possibilities now.  (Maybe I'll keep an eye on that...)

The Indians, at 31-45 and 11 games back of the division lead, get a solid relief pitcher (possibly their future closer) who will be with the team for a number of years plus what appears to be a top-level prospect. In a rebuilding mode, the Indians couldn't ask for much morefor a half-season loan.

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Braves Get McLouth

Thursday, 04 June 2009 23:51 Ben
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The Trade:

Braves get Nate McLouth for minor leaguers Charlie Morton, Gorkys Hernandez, and Jeff Locke.

On Paper:

The Braves are putting themselves in position for a wild card run. The Pirates are stocking away young talent.

Best Case Scenario for Braves:

McLouth has another all-star year and helps lead the Braves back to the postseason.

Best Case Scenario for Pirates:

McCuthchen makes McLouth expendable and Morton, Hernandez, and Locke all contribute to the NL Central winning Pirates team in 2011.

Worst Case Scenario for Braves:

McLouth was a flash in the pan and they gave up way too much talent.

Worst Case Scenario for Pirates:

This is the Xavier Nady trade all over again. The names can play, but lack upside.

Bottom Line:

McLouth is an under the radar star with the capacity to really alter the course of a team. Unfortunately, he’s not good enough alone to make the Pirates respectable, so he had to be moved. This should make the Braves a threat. As for the Pirates, they’ve moved quite a bit of major league talent for some decent minor league talent. Jose Tabata and Bryan Morris were added in trades last year, and cracked the systems top ten (according to Baseball America). Pedro Alvarez came in via the draft, and Andrew McCuthchen has already been called up to fill McLouth’s void. Add to that list Hernandez and Locke (who are in the Braves top ten), and this is starting to look like a talented system. We may need to start thinking about the Pirates’ system as decent. Now if they could only start drafting well.

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